Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly describes why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you want to take a look at this pie, you could make an argument that either team might be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the very first Canadian team because Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Oilers.


Connor McDavid (97) talks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I think we'll probably take a little more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers need to be preferred.


"You do not see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent question: Are these 2 groups much better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) somewhat worse than last year, particularly when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I give the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the second skater and 6th gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they might provide it to him here, however that's something to view as the video games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly standing out ... there is a real life where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weak point on the lineup, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or absolutely no objectives in five of his past seven starts, three of them shutouts.


Another fantastic run in the net might put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually informed you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could lastly reach the Panthers. Or they might just be on a heater having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a little bit tougher since more individuals liked Florida, but individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a chance to go six or 7 video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)